Recent military agreements between Ethiopia and Somalia reflect a growing strategic alliance, particularly in operations against al-Shabaab, which is responsible for nearly 400 attacks annually, resulting in thousands of lives lost in the region. Ethiopia has deployed 4,500 troops under ATMIS, while another 12,000 personnel have been deployed along the 1,640 km long shared border. Their common focus is on securing trade routes and limiting the impact of terrorism.
Somalia increased its defense spending by 30% in 2024, to $600 million, while Ethiopia’s military budget has grown to more than $1 billion. More than 15,000 military personnel participated in the joint military exercise between the two countries, which represents an important milestone in the defense relationship between the two countries. The purpose of these exercises was to address common security challenges and further strengthen military cooperation.
Bilateral trade now exceeds $1 billion annually, including $800 million worth of Ethiopian exports, including more than 20% of the electricity supplied to Somalia’s urban areas. Despite these developments, unresolved conflicts in the Ogden region and competition over border resources are issues that require careful negotiation and diplomacy to resolve. Both countries must move forward in the direction of transparent and sustainable negotiations to deal with these challenges.
Joint Military Operations: Strengthening Regional Security
Ethiopia and Somalia have conducted more than 35 joint military operations since 2012, aimed at countering extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab, which have so far carried out more than 5,000 attacks and killed more than 25,000 people in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia has deployed around 4,500 troops to Somalia under the framework of ATMIS, part of a combined force of 19,600 multinational troops, active in peacekeeping operations in the region. In addition, Ethiopia has trained 12,000 Somali soldiers since 2015 to strengthen its national security institutions.
Economic Ties and Trade Growth Between Ethiopia and Somalia
Trade between Ethiopia and Somalia has grown by 40% over the past ten years, with annual trade volume expected to reach nearly $400 million by 2025. Ethiopia exports more than $200 million worth of goods annually, including more than 3 million kilograms of khat, construction materials, and food. Somalia supplies more than 3 million cattle to Ethiopia each year, accounting for more than 20% of Ethiopia’s cattle imports. Cross-border trade caters to the employment needs of more than five million people, including traders, pastoralists, and transport workers from both countries.
Challenges in Addressing Historical and Territorial Disputes
The disputed region of Ogden, which covers 200,000 square kilometers, has so far become the center of conflict for more than 2 million people. Ethiopia and Somalia have held more than 75 bilateral talks since 1991 to resolve issues in the region, with 20 agreements signed, although most of them have been partially implemented. In the past decade, these conflicts have displaced more than 300,000 people and caused more than $500 million in economic losses due to trade disruptions and local instability. Nevertheless, ongoing negotiations have reduced violent incidents in disputed areas by about 15% since 2020. Relations between Ethiopia and Somalia have seen remarkable progress, including more than 35 joint military operations and an annual trade volume of more than $400 million, increasing security and economic cooperation between the two countries. Even though the territorial conflict has affected more than 2 million people, the joint efforts of the two countries have reduced violence in these disputed areas by 15%. Sustaining this positive progress and addressing remaining challenges requires continued support.
