The ongoing instability in Somalia is becoming a serious threat to peace and order in the entire Horn of Africa. In recent days, piracy has increased off the coast of Somalia, leading to the hijacking of Yemeni fishing boats, a concern for maritime trade routes.
Meanwhile, tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia escalated after Ethiopia signed an agreement with Somaliland, which the Somali government calls an attack on its sovereignty. Kenya and Uganda have launched diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis to prevent further escalation. In addition, Egypt’s military aid to Somalia has fueled fears of an arms race in the region, further threatening regional stability.
Resurgence of Piracy and Maritime Security Threats
Pirate activity is picking up again off the coast of Somalia, and at least two Yemeni fishing boats have been hijacked in recent months. Piracy was at its peak in 2011, when pirates carried out more than 237 attacks, causing billions of dollars in global trade losses. As of 2019, the threat was almost eliminated as a result of international maritime surveillance, but the current economic crisis and security weaknesses have led to a resurgence of piracy. The Gulf of Aden, a key location in global shipping lanes, sees more than 20,000 ships in transit every year, making it imperative to ensure its security.
Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal and Regional Tensions
Ethiopia signed an agreement with Somaliland on January 1, 2024, granting it 20 kilometers of coastline for maritime and commercial use. Somalia reacted strongly to the deal as a violation of its sovereignty, further worsening relations between the two countries. In view of this rising tension, the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have initiated diplomatic interventions to resolve the conflict.
The issue is also affecting trade in the region, as Ethiopia relies on Djibouti’s port system for 95 percent of its imports and is now looking for alternative sources. Although talks have begun in Turkey, tensions between the two countries remain.
Military Involvement and the Risk of Escalation
Egypt has provided large-scale military equipment to Somalia as part of its strategic policy, which Ethiopia sees as a threat to its interests in the region. The conflict has intensified in the wake of Africa’s largest water project, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (costing $5 billion). Somalia’s army, which numbers around 25,000, is improving its defense capabilities with the help of foreign aid.
On the other hand, Kenya and Uganda, which have deployed more than 10,000 troops under the African Union Transition Mission (ATMIS) in Somalia, are trying to prevent the conflict from escalating further. However, the fear of armed conflict still remains due to rising regional tensions.
