The growing tension between the Federal Government of Somalia and Jubaland has led to a military conflict. The crisis began when Jubaland held a disputed presidential election, electing President Ahmed Madoub for a third term, which the federal government declared illegal. Both sides have fought for control of key territories, with Ras Kamboni being particularly important.
The federal government says Jubaland’s presidential election was constitutionally invalid, while Jubaland asserts its rights to self-determination. The current situation continues to increase instability, which may have serious implications for national security and challenges in operations against militant groups.
Origins of the Jubaland Crisis
The crisis in Jubaland began in 2024 when President Ahmed Madoub was elected for a third term despite opposition from the federal government. About 3.5 million people were affected by the electoral conflict in Jubaland. The federal government claimed that more than 60 percent of voters did not support the disputed elections, calling the decision damaging to Somalia’s federal structure.
Clashes Over Strategic Territories
Military clashes are taking place around key areas of Jubaland, particularly Ras Kamboni, which has a population of over 100,000. Federal forces are trying to recapture this strategic area, which is important for trade and security. By the end of 2024, between 2,000 and 3,000 soldiers from both sides were involved in the clashes, resulting in large numbers of casualties and displacement of people.
Political and Legal Disputes Between the Federal Government and Jubaland
More than half of Somalia’s parliamentarians opposed Jubaland’s presidential election as unconstitutional. Legal experts say that constitutional reform is needed to resolve conflicts arising in the issue of regional autonomy versus federal government powers. The impasse has further widened the divide between political parties, further polarizing the country.
Impact on Somalia’s Security and Anti-Militant Efforts
Ongoing tensions between the federal government and Jubaland have hampered operations against al-Shabaab in Somalia, where an estimated 15,000 to 20,000 al-Shabaab fighters are active in the southern regions. US and African Union forces have experienced a 20 to 30 percent reduction in joint operations against terrorist groups due to internal conflict, further worsening the security situation in the region.
The crisis in Jubaland highlights the growing political tension between the federal and regional governments, leading to military conflict and increasing instability. Continuing tensions also threaten to divert attention from the ongoing fight against extremist groups in Somalia. In this situation, it is necessary to start a sustainable and comprehensive dialogue to maintain national unity and security.
