China has completely halted US soybean imports for the first time since November 2018, according to official data from the General Administration of Customs.
The move in September marks a significant shift in global trade dynamics, as the world’s two largest economies continue their tariff-driven standoff.
US Soybean Imports Drop to Zero
The report shows that China imported zero tons of soybeans from the United States in September, down sharply from 1.7 million tons in the same month of 2024.
The decline reflects escalating trade tensions between Beijing and Washington, as high tariffs continue to restrict agricultural exchanges.
Analyst Wang Chengqi of Capital Chengdu Futures explained that the drop in imports is primarily due to the heavy tariffs imposed by China in retaliation to the trade measures introduced by the administration of US President Donald Trump.
“China remains the world’s largest soybean importer, but the tariffs have pushed Chinese buyers to seek alternative suppliers,” Wang said, noting that small volumes from previous US harvests are still trickling into Chinese markets.
Who Will Fill the Gap of US Soybean Imports?
With US soybeans imports halt, Brazil and Argentina have become China’s key suppliers.
Imports from Brazil surged 29.9% year-on-year to 10.96 million tons in September, accounting for 85.2% of China’s total soybean imports.
Meanwhile, shipments from Argentina jumped 91.5% to 1.17 million tons, as Chinese companies diversify their sources amid geopolitical uncertainty.
12.87 Million Tons Imported in September Alone
Overall, China’s total soybean imports reached 12.87 million tons in September, the second-highest monthly level on record.
The strong import numbers highlight China’s ongoing demand for soybeans, which are essential for animal feed and food production.
Economic Implications of Stopping US Soybean Imports.
If trade negotiations between Beijing and Washington fail to progress, US farmers could face billions in losses this season due to the loss of their largest export market.
The shift toward South American suppliers underscores a long-term restructuring of global agricultural trade routes.
However, analysts warn that China could encounter supply shortages between February and April 2026, before Brazil’s next harvest reaches the market.
US Farmers Bear the Burnt of Trade War
This potential gap may increase domestic prices and strain local industries reliant on US soybean imports.
The latest data illustrates how trade disputes are reshaping global commodity flows, with lasting impacts on both producers and importers.
For now, South America stands to gain, while US farmers bear the brunt of a prolonged trade war.
