Opposition leaders in Somalia have fiercely resisted the government’s disarmament plan, which aims to disarm more than 1,200 local militia groups. These groups are mostly spread in the southern parts of the country, covering 40% of the total area.
The government aims to reduce militia activity by 30 percent by 2026 and seeks to reduce armed violence by 60 percent. However, opposition leaders say the move could affect as many as 5 million people, including 60 percent of the population in rural areas, who rely on local militias for their protection.
Impact of the Disarmament Initiative on Somali Militias
The Somali government plans to disarm 40,000 to 50,000 militias over the next three years, reducing their activity in key areas by 60 percent. These groups control 60 percent of rural areas, and the disarmament policy aims to reduce their armed presence by 50 percent, which is expected to reduce serious violence and armed conflict in these areas by 45 percent.
Opposition Leaders’ Concerns and Reactions
About 35 percent of opposition leaders oppose the government’s disarmament move, saying it will create a power vacuum and further strengthen rebel groups. The opposition represents nearly 500 key political figures, 25 percent of whom believe that the lack of arms will destabilize areas ruled by militias and will directly affect 4 million people.
Government’s Strategy to Address Armed Violence
The government aims to confiscate 75% of illegal weapons from militia groups, with a target of 120,000 firearms over five years. The move could lead to a 70% reduction in armed violence, with a large drop in deaths from militia-related violence expected, from 3,000 to 1,000. The government plans to invest $200 million in security infrastructure for the project.
Potential Social and Economic Ramifications of Disarmament
Ending the militia’s armed presence may temporarily increase unemployment, especially in areas where these groups play an important role in the local economy. It is estimated that around 600,000 people will face economic hardship because of this move, but in the long term, it will stabilize the region, which could boost economic growth and lead to up to 3% GDP growth.
Somalia’s disarmament plan faces major resistance, but it has the potential to stem militia attacks and build long-term peace. Despite the difficulties, the project could lead to improved security and economic development, benefiting millions of people. Its successful implementation will require strong coordination and continued support from government and global partners.
