The United Nations has launched a new operation in Somalia aimed at weakening the power of al-Shabaab, which controls about 40 percent of the country’s southern region and earns up to $100 million a year from illegal sources. The mission will involve more than 20,000 troops, including 10,000 local Somali troops and 10,000 African Union troops.
Al-Shabaab operations recorded a 30 percent increase in 2024, resulting in over 1,200 deaths. The attacks are aimed at regaining control of key areas, displacing nearly two million people and weakening the group’s hold on key trade routes.
Increased Military Presence in Somalia
The new UN mission has deployed more than 30,000 troops from regional partners such as Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti. The force is working alongside 25,000 Somali troops, creating a powerful alliance of 55,000 personnel.
The objective of this mission is to re-liberate 40 percent of the territory held by al-Shabaab by 2026. A budget of $1.2 billion has been earmarked for the project, which aims to reduce al-Shabaab’s influence by 60 percent over the next two years.
Financial Impact of al-Shabab’s Activities
The al-Shabaab group generates more than $200 million annually from illegal activities, including extortion, illegal taxes, and smuggling. These activities cost the Somali economy $400 million annually in the form of losses to infrastructure, business, and agriculture.
This financial loss manifests itself in the form of a 5% reduction in GDP. In addition, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Somalia has declined by 35% due to security issues, undermining long-term economic growth.
Recent Surge in al-Shabaab Attacks
Over the past year, al-Shabaab has carried out more than 800 attacks in southern and central Somalia, a 25% increase over the previous year. As a result of these attacks, 1,200 civilians, 900 soldiers, and more than 200 aid workers lost their lives. The group is now expanding its presence in remote areas, and bombings and ambushes have increased by 30%. The group is currently active in 80% of southern Somalia and has significantly increased its presence in the past 18 months.
Displacement Crisis Amidst Ongoing Conflict
About 4.5 million people have been displaced from their homes due to the ongoing conflict in Somalia, of which 3.2 million are considered internally displaced persons (IDPs). More than two million of them are in urgent need of food, and 800,000 children are severely malnourished.
More than 50% of the displaced live in areas controlled by al-Shabaab, making relief efforts difficult. Currently, about 40% of the displaced are living in refugee camps or informal settlements, where they face extremely difficult conditions.
International Support for Somalia’s Security Forces
International aid to Somalia’s security forces and military has seen a significant increase, with more than $1.5 billion pledged over the next five years. The African Union and the European Union, in partnership with the United Nations, have pledged $800 million in aid to Somalia’s security sector. More than 15 countries have contributed to the training of Somali troops, to increase military readiness by 50 percent by 2026, and another 30 percent by 2028.
The new UN operation in Somalia is a key step in countering al-Shabaab’s growing presence, aiming to recapture key areas and limit the group’s military capabilities. Thanks to international assistance, the mission will build the capacity of Somalia’s security forces and seek to restore peace in the region. However, lasting peace and economic growth will require sustained investment, coordination, and cooperation to achieve these goals.
