Somaliland has expressed serious concerns over the continued arms transfer from Egypt to Mogadishu, calling it a threat to the stability of the region. In 2024, Egypt’s military aid to Somalia increased by 35 percent, providing more than 6,000 tons of arms and ammunition. The stockpile includes 2,000 heavy weapons, more than 50,000 small arms, and millions of rounds of ammunition, potentially fueling the conflict.
Somaliland, which has been claiming independence for three decades, has more than 4,500 troops stationed along its borders with Somalia. The region is already suffering from a severe humanitarian crisis, with more than 2.5 million people displaced by conflict and unrest. This shipment of weapons is considered a dangerous factor to further increase the tension in the region and lead to a possible conflict.
Escalating Arms Shipments and Regional Tensions
Egypt’s arms supply to Somalia increased by 40 percent in 2024, sending more than 7,500 tons of military equipment, including 3,000 heavy weapons, 70,000 small arms, and 10 million rounds of ammunition. The increased military aid has raised serious concerns in Somaliland, which has been embroiled in a three-decade conflict over control of its borders. Experts warn that if this arms delivery continues at the same pace, the chances of conflict may increase to 60% during the next year.
Somaliland’s Security Concerns and Military Readiness
Somaliland has deployed more than 5,000 troops to strengthen its border defenses and increased its defense budget by 50 percent in the past five years, to about $150 million. According to intelligence reports, Somali forces have grown by 25 percent since 2023 and now exceed 30,000. In the face of increasing threats, Somaliland has stressed the urgent need for additional security support, fearing a possible major conflict.
Impact on the Humanitarian Crisis and Displacement
The Horn of Africa is currently experiencing one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises, with more than 3 million people displaced by ongoing violence and instability. Aid agencies say about 750,000 more people could be displaced by the end of 2025 if the situation worsens. Food insecurity has become a serious problem, with 7.5 million people in Somalia suffering from food insecurity, and 2 million children suffering from severe malnutrition.
Potential for a Wider Regional Conflict
Somalia’s growing military capability has raised concerns among its neighbors Ethiopia and Djibouti, both of which have strategic military interests in the region. Ethiopia has deployed more than 12,000 troops along its border, while Djibouti has deployed 5,000 troops to bolster its defense presence. If current tensions escalate into conflict, it could create a serious humanitarian and security crisis for more than 220 million people, threatening the stability of the entire region.
Egypt’s supply of more than 7,500 tons of weapons to Somalia in 2024 has increased tensions in the Horn of Africa. Currently, more than 3 million people have already been displaced under dire conditions and 7.5 million people are suffering from severe malnutrition, further military aid could deepen the humanitarian crisis. If key regional players like Ethiopia and Djibouti get involved in the conflict, it could threaten the entire region’s stability, leading to massive security challenges in the area of 220 million people.
