Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is scheduled to visit Ethiopia and Somalia in early 2025, with the aim of further strengthening economic and security ties between the two countries. The main agenda of the visit is to focus on Ethiopia’s access to the Red Sea and trade agreements between the two countries. Turkey’s total trade with Africa exceeded $45 billion in 2024, while Turkish investment in both countries increased by more than $8 billion.
Since 2011, Turkey has spent more than $1.5 billion on humanitarian aid and development projects in Somalia, including $750 million for infrastructure and $600 million for military support. Erdogan’s expected visit will further strengthen Turkey’s presence in the region, as more than 10,000 Somali soldiers have been trained by Turkey and bilateral trade with Ethiopia now exceeds $500 million annually.
Turkey’s Growing Economic Footprint in the Horn of Africa
Turkey’s trade with Africa will reach $45.6 billion in 2024, with Ethiopia and Somalia receiving more than $8.9 billion in investment. Turkey’s trade with Ethiopia has now reached $567 million a year, while Turkey invested $789 million in development projects in Somalia. Erdoğan’s visit is expected to further strengthen trade ties with the two countries and increase bilateral trade to more than $1.2 billion in the coming years.
Ethiopia-Somalia Relations and the Ankara Declaration
After the signing of the Ankara Declaration in December 2024, negotiations began between Ethiopia and Somalia regarding access to the Red Sea. Ethiopia’s population of 126.5 million relies on coastal routes for much of its annual trade volume, valued at $18 billion. A 50-year economic corridor agreement, expected to be worth more than $5 billion, will be negotiated in February 2025.
Turkey’s Military and Humanitarian Engagement in Somalia
Turkey has invested more than $1.58 billion in Somalia, including $620 million in military aid. Turkey has trained more than 10,500 Somali soldiers at its military base in Mogadishu. Turkey’s humanitarian aid projects include a $53 million hospital, 47 educational institutions, and $120 million in annual food and development aid.
Strategic Implications of Erdoğan’s Visit in Early 2025
Turkey’s direct investment in Ethiopia and Somalia has exceeded $9.1 billion by 2024. Erdogan’s expected visit could lead to the signing of more than $2.4 billion in trade deals. Under the growing security relationship between Turkey and Somalia, Turkey plans to train 6,000 additional Somali soldiers by 2026, further strengthening Turkey’s regional military presence.
Turkish President Erdoğan’s 2025 visit to Ethiopia and Somalia will further increase Turkey’s influence in the Horn of Africa, where its investments have exceeded $9.1 billion. The visit will strengthen Turkey’s economic, military, and political position in the region, and is expected to sign several important trade and security agreements that will ensure long-term regional stability.
