Relations between Somalia’s newly formed North-East State and the self-declared Republic of Somaliland have entered a new phase of tension, amid reports of possible military mobilization by the breakaway region.
Background: A New Federal State Emerges
The North-East State, officially announced in August with support from the Somali federal government, became the latest member of the country’s federal system, joining Hirshabelle, Galmudug, South West, Jubaland, Puntland and Mogadishu.
Somaliland, which unilaterally declared independence in 1991 and controls most of north-western Somalia, rejects the new state’s boundaries, claiming the regions of Sool, Sanaag and parts of Togdheer as its own.
Puntland has also voiced opposition, citing overlapping territorial claims.
Ministry Warnings Over “Preparations for Attack”
North-East State’s Ministry of Security and Defense said it is closely monitoring military activities along the border with Hargeisa, calling them “preparations for an attack on local communities.”
In a statement carried by local media, the ministry warned Somaliland it would “bear full responsibility for any consequences,” labeling the moves “aggression.”
The state called on the federal government to uphold its constitutional duty to protect Somalia’s territorial integrity, and urged the UN, African Union, IGAD and the Arab League to condemn Somaliland’s military activities.
Somalia’s North-East State Constitution Building and Local Governance
In July, North-East State concluded a conference in Las Anod, Sool, finalizing its draft constitution with participation from diverse local communities.
On 30 August, its new parliament elected Abdulkadir Ahmed Ouali as the first state president, completing the initial political framework.
Analysts: Escalation Likely to Remain Verbal
African affairs experts believe the standoff is unlikely to escalate into open conflict. Dr. Abdallah Ahmed Ibrahim, director of the East Africa Studies Center in Nairobi said that any threats from Somaliland are “more rhetorical than real” and primarily rooted in clan dynamics.
“The state is already established; only the president’s inauguration remains. Such threats will not derail it,” he said.
He also noted that any federal government involvement would likely be limited to logistical and military support, not deployment of national troops, with African Union peacekeepers as a possible stabilizing force if tensions rise.
Broader Regional and Political Dimensions
Somaliland and Puntland both claim parts of Sool, Sanaag and Togdheer.
After the North-East State was formed, Somaliland’s president Muse Bihi Abdi convened a meeting in August to discuss the development, describing it as a “threat” to its authority.
Puntland’s parliament also issued a statement calling the new state a “direct attack” on Puntland’s territorial unity and accused Mogadishu of “fragmenting the country.”
What are the Dimensions of the Dispute?
Dr. Ali Mahmoud Kulmiye, another regional affairs analyst, said the dispute has two main dimensions:
- Political: The federal government’s support for the new administration is seen by Somaliland and Puntland as an attempt to reduce their influence and expand Mogadishu’s reach.
- Social and Geographic: The new state includes clans historically tied to both Somaliland and Puntland, such as the Warsangeli in Sool and Sanaag, intensifying competition over local loyalties.
Possible Scenarios Ahead
Kulmiye warned that without a swift compromise, the dispute could:
- Undermine the new administration’s political legitimacy.
- Lead to limited federal intervention, deepening the three-way rift between Mogadishu, Puntland and Somaliland.
- Negatively affect preparations for Somalia’s May 2026 general elections by stalling necessary political agreements.
He added that dialogue with Somaliland, already minimal, could further deteriorate, increasing the risk of political isolation.
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