The African Union is weighing drastic troop reductions for the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) after emergency funds failed to materialise, a new International Crisis Group brief warns.
Cash shortages are already degrading operations and fuelling frustration among the main troop-contributing countries, including Uganda, Burundi, Kenya and Ethiopia.
Why the Shortfall in AU Peace Mission Funding?
- In April the UN Security Council could not pass a resolution that would have allowed the UN to underwrite up to 75 percent of ATMIS costs.
The United States publicly opposed the measure, citing budget restraints. - Traditional donors have shifted attention to wars in Gaza, Sudan and Ukraine.
Leaving the Somalia file under-funded. - The AU’s own Peace Fund covers only a fraction of the nearly US $120 million required each quarter to keep 14,000 uniformed personnel on the ground.
AU Peace Mission – Security stakes
The AU Peace Mission is scheduled to hand full responsibility to the Somali National Army (SNA) by the end of 2024.
Yet Mogadishu still struggles to hold rural gains against al-Shabaab. A sudden draw-down could:
- Create security vacuums in liberated districts.
- Erode morale inside the SNA, which depends on AU artillery, medevac and air support.
- Reopen supply routes for al-Shabaab, undermining recent counter-offensives in Galmudug and Hirshabelle.
Search for a Bailout
AU diplomats are now pitching a high-level donor conference in Doha or London to plug the gap.
While exploring creative financing—such as blended World Bank grants and Gulf security funds.
Observers say without a rapid cash injection, troop numbers could fall below 10,000 before December, reversing a decade of peacekeeping gains.
Bottom line: Unless the international community rallies behind a sustainable funding model, Somalia risks sliding back into extremist violence just as it edges toward nationwide elections and debt-relief milestones.
Somali Probe delivers in-depth coverage of security, governance and development across the Horn of Africa. Stay tuned for real-time updates on AU Peace Mission and the fight against al-Shabaab.
