Despite years of foreign military involvement—including intensive airstrikes and tactical support from the United States—Somalia’s security landscape continues to deteriorate.
Militant groups like ISIS and al-Shabaab are expanding their territorial influence, undermining peace efforts and challenging regional stability.
US Military Activity Intensifies the Conflict in Somalia
Repeated US drone and airstrikes, especially under recent administrations, have failed to neutralize extremist threats.
Instead, these operations have intensified the conflict, fostering collaboration between al-Shabaab, ISIS, and the Houthis—who now contribute resources to empower jihadi operations across Somali territories.
Escalation of US Military Activity in Somalia
Under President Trump’s current term, US military activity in Somalia has surged—36 drone strikes were recorded in the first half of 2025 alone, compared to 10 total under Biden in 2024.
By year-end, projections suggest over 70 strikes, with as many as 288 expected before 2029.
Despite internal debate, the US remains heavily invested in Somalia’s counterterrorism strategy.
Shifting US Presence: From Withdrawal to Base Construction
Over the past decade, American engagement in Somalia has oscillated:
- Trump ordered a troop withdrawal in 2020.
- Biden reinstated forces in 2022 to enhance “safety and effectiveness.”
- Five new U.S.-built military bases were established in 2024 for training Somali forces.
In 2025, Somalia offered the US exclusive access to key air and sea ports—a reflection of its desire for closer coordination on counterterrorism, despite Washington’s foreign aid freeze.
The Web of Regional and Global Actors in Somali Affairs
Foreign involvement goes far beyond the US military activity:
Turkey’s Strategic Investments
- Since 2011, Turkey has fostered ties through humanitarian aid and geostrategic collaboration.
- In 2017, it established its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu.
- As of April 2025, Turkey gained oil and gas access in Somali waters in exchange for deploying 500 additional troops.
Egypt’s Role and Ethiopian Rivalry
Egypt has supplied weapons to Somali forces since 2024, motivated in part by its tensions with Ethiopia over the Blue Nile Dam.
Ethiopia’s MOU with Somaliland granting sea access exacerbated regional frictions and challenged Somalia’s territorial integrity.
AUSSOM Peacekeeping Operations
The African Union’s new peacekeeping mission (AUSSOM), launched in January 2025, includes troops from:
Uganda | 4,500 Troops
Ethiopia | 2,500 Troops
Djibouti | 1,520 Troops
Kenya | 1,500 Troops
Egypt | 1,091 Troops
Despite initial resistance, Ethiopia was later allowed to participate, further complicating regional dynamics.
Endless War with US Military Activity or Shift in Policy?
Though Trump administration previously criticized open-ended wars, its current Somalia strategy risks deepening an unwinnable conflict.
Experts argue for pivoting U.S. foreign policy toward diplomatic resolutions—like its peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda—and investing in ending Sudan’s civil war.
