In a troubling escalation that threatens to destabilize recent progress in Somali-Ethiopian relations, Ethiopian forces stationed in Doolow, Gedo region of southwestern Somalia, have reportedly issued a three-day ultimatum to Somali forces to vacate the town of Beled Hawo.
Details of Ethiopia’s Ultimatum to Somali Forces
Gedo Governor Abdullahi Shimbir announced Ethiopia’s ultimatum to Somali Forces during a press conference held Tuesday evening.
According to Shimbir, a senior Somali government official, Ethiopian troops summoned local elders and community leaders to deliver an official demand: Somali government troops must withdraw from their base on the outskirts of Beled Hawo.
The governor condemned the move as an “unacceptable violation” and a “flagrant breach” of Somali sovereignty.
He warned that the regional administration would not tolerate Ethiopia’s recurring interference.
Previous Attacks Fuel Tension and Uncertainty
The Ethiopian ultimatum to Somali Forces comes just weeks after Ethiopian forces reportedly attacked a National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) base in Doolow.
Destroying the facility and detaining its commander — all without a formal response from Mogadishu.
This silence has raised serious concerns about the federal government’s stance and its ability to defend national sovereignty.
The Somaliland MoU: Root Cause of Strained Relations
Tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia have been on the rise since early 2024, when Addis Ababa signed a controversial Memorandum of Understanding with the self-declared independent region of Somaliland.
The deal granted Ethiopia access to the Red Sea coast in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence.
Somalia strongly rejected the agreement, viewing it as a blatant violation of its territorial integrity, and severed diplomatic ties with Ethiopia.
Though Turkish mediation led to the Ankara Agreement in December 2024, restoring diplomatic ties, the situation in Gedo threatens to unravel this fragile reconciliation.
Gedo Region: A Strategic Flashpoint
Gedo region remains a flashpoint due to the presence of both African Union mission-aligned Ethiopian troops and others operating outside AU mandates.
This dual presence continues to raise concerns about Ethiopia’s long-term intentions and their impact on stability in southern Somalia.
Unilateral military actions in this volatile area are increasingly seen as a threat to Somalia’s national security and a major test for bilateral relations.
Diplomatic Optics Contradicted by Military Pressure
Despite the formal diplomatic gestures — including the recent presentation of credentials by Ethiopia’s new ambassador to Somalia, Suleiman Dedefo Woshe — Ethiopian military pressure in Gedo undermines the goodwill generated by such official exchanges.
What Next? Silence from Mogadishu Raises Questions
As the ultimatum to Somali forces keeps the Somali government silent, the question lingers:
Will Mogadishu stand firm against Ethiopia’s demands, or will this mark a turning point that further complicates the already volatile security and political landscape in the borderlands?
