Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s attendance at the inauguration of Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on 9 September in Benishangul region has ignited wide debate inside Somalia and across the Horn of Africa.
While some observers argue that Mogadishu’s participation may unsettle Egypt, which is recalibrating its strategic posture in the region, others see it as an effort to balance Ethiopian and Egyptian influence on Somali politics.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud Calls for Regional Cooperation
At the ceremony, President Mohamud stressed that GERD is not merely an Ethiopian achievement but a collective regional responsibility.
He called for moving beyond zero-sum competition over natural resources—especially water—and instead promoting cooperative models of sustainable development among upstream and downstream states.
He also reiterated Somalia’s readiness to engage with neighbors to advance dialogue and regional stability.
Balancing Ethiopia and Egypt
Experts note that Somalia finds itself at the center of a sensitive rivalry between Cairo and Addis Ababa. Somali MP Abdurahman Abdishakur warned that the visit could be perceived by Egypt as a setback given its historic support for Mogadishu against Ethiopian attempts to secure Somali coastal access.
Yet he also emphasized that Somalia’s only viable tool is skilled diplomacy to protect national interests amid competing regional pressures.
No Strategic Shift from Cairo
According to Somali researcher Adnan Abdi, there is no strong evidence that Somalia is realigning against Egypt.
Cairo has been a key supporter of Somalia’s sovereignty and security, including through the African Union peacekeeping mission.
Egyptian analyst Rabie Mahmoud added that Egypt understands Somalia’s need to maintain pragmatic ties with its neighbors and continues to favor dialogue over confrontation on both the GERD and maritime access disputes.
