Somalia is witnessing deepening conflicts between the central government and two key federal member states.
These confrontations signal President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s attempts to consolidate power, raising concerns about the trajectory of the country’s federal system.
Emergence of a New State — SSC-Khatumo
Mogadishu recently approved the creation of a new federal state — SSC-Khatumo — in the contested Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn (SSC) regions.
The move aims to merge SSC-Khatumo with the Maakhir interim state, forming a combined Northeast State.
However, this decision angered Puntland, which claims jurisdiction over parts of these regions.
Puntland condemned the federal directive, asserting it undermines the constitutionally mandated process of state formation.
Jubbaland Clashes Heighten Tensions
Simultaneously, federal forces clashed with Jubbaland troops in Gedo, near the borders of Kenya and Ethiopia.
Jubbaland’s administration accused President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of orchestrating the attack through Abdirashid Janan, the newly appointed National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) head for Jubbaland, deepening mistrust with Mogadishu.
A Power Play in Election Year
Observers see these maneuvers as strategic attempts to reshape local political realities ahead of national elections scheduled for 2026.
By recognizing SSC-Khatumo and weakening Jubbaland’s influence, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud may shift representation toward lawmakers more aligned with his vision.
Political analyst Sadik Bihi notes that whether elections occur through direct voting or clan-based systems, these regions—if aligned with Mogadishu—could benefit the president electorally.
Regional Backlash and Federalism at Risk
These developments are fanning fears of a centralization of power at the expense of Somalia’s fragile federal structure.
Puntland has formally withheld recognition of the federal government, citing President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud failure to consult regional actors.
Similar ruptures with Jubbaland further erode the pillars of Somalia’s federalism.
Fragmented Politics Undermine National Stability
This intensifying conflict among federal stakeholders not only splits governance but also weakens the nation’s ability to confront critical challenges, such as insurgency and state-building.
Experts caution that continued exclusion of regional voices risks inflaming internal divisions and jeopardizing Somalia’s path to unity and security.
